At the end of the year, analysts of all leading banks, funds and brokers issue a forecast for the next year. Let’s see what the new year 2024 has in store for us.
AI application
In technology, virtually everyone has a consensus view on the prevailing influence and continued explosive development of artificial intelligence in 2024, as well as the future AI-ization (similar to the Uberization of the 2010s) of many economic and manufacturing sectors, from finance and consumer to mining and manufacturing.
The greatest medium-term effect – besides the obvious impact on creative specialties, contact centers, logistics – is expected in medicine (in particular, in the creation of new drugs, assistance in diagnosis and treatment, digitization of services, etc.), banking and finance (automation of workplaces in compliance and trading, as an example).
Climate change
The next megatrend, although far from recent, is climate change (global warming) and related regulation. Accordingly, the focus is on technologies and businesses related to the reduction of CO2 emissions, as well as the overall minimization of the harmful human impact on the environment.
In my opinion, many analysts undeservedly ignore nuclear power in the long-term energy development agenda. It is the only one modern energy source that has serious chances to become a key element replacing carbon generation before the world’s global transition to new technologies in solar energy. The latter, I am sure, has no serious future without new breakthrough developments in environmentally friendly and reliable photovoltaic cells, as well as new ways of multiply more efficient accumulation and storage of electricity.
Cybersecurity
All analysts note the continuing trend towards cybersecurity as a derivative of the global risks of increasing pressure on security infrastructure, verification of accesses and data protection. Here we can mention also distributed infrastructure and partly blockchain security issues, the emergence of cross-functional and cross-platform solutions.
Web3 (blockchain) specialists are anticipating an interesting year amid the launch of several solutions to provide cross-platform connectivity between blockchain protocols. Practically, consumers want to be able to work with different assets and blockchain protocols from a single interface, seamlessly, maximizing revenue from crypto-assets while maintaining the benefits of decentralization and anonymity. Respective solutions are expected by leading participants in the web3 industry in the year 2024.
Geopolitics
Virtually all think tanks in global finance, in contrast to a year ago, now pay relatively little attention to analyzing geopolitics. Some briefly mention the persistent geopolitical uncertainty, often even without specific names of countries and pairs of countries. Attention is drawn to the presidential election agenda in 2024 – the US, Russia, and a number of EU countries. Pre-election and then in 2025 post-election impacts on short-term economic agenda setting and stock market volatility are expected.
Demography
There is a long-term trend of population aging in developed countries – Europe is aging, China is aging, and the United States is aging. The demand for services and goods for retired people will continue to grow, which naturally leads to the emergence of a large number of new companies, including startups, in this field.
The labor market continues to be filled with personnel from developing countries with a high birth rate, which is typical for the first quarter of the 21st century. In the medium term, India will bring to the market a significant number of not only low-skilled personnel, but also “white-collar” specialists who speak English.
Investments
The consensus among analysts was the forecast of growth of Japanese economy and corresponding recommendations to pay attention to the stock market of the country. The Indian economy is expected to continue growing and uncertainty is still present in the Chinese economy.
Due to globally high rates, but expectation of their reduction in the medium term, demand for short-term debt instruments (fixed income) will remain – it is recommended to invest in bonds of reliable corporate borrowers and countries, with repayment within 1-2 years.
Investors are expected to pay more attention to assets with valuations that have suffered a correction in the last two years but have maintained their market positions. Usually, such businesses have cut costs, optimized their portfolio of products and business lines, and adopted a generally more pragmatic business strategy. Companies that are successful in this have every chance to seriously increase in price in the next couple of years.
Disclaimer: Please note that the above is an analysis based on two dozen reports from the world’s leading investment banks, funds and brokers. The above are in no way the investment recommendations.